It’s a sad truth that spring shows tend to dominate Tony nominations, leaving just a few slots for great work that opened in the fall season (though recent winners Hamilton & Dear Evan Hansen both opened in the fall). Below, the BroadwayBox team goes category-by-category filling in what that one fall slot would have to be (IMHO).
Best Musical: SpongeBob SquarePants
Best Play: Meteor Shower
Best Revival of a Musical: Once On This Island
Best Revival of a Play: Time and The Conways
Best Leading Actor in a Musical: Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants
Best Leading Actress in a Musical: Katrina Lenk, The Band’s Visit*
Best Leading Actor in a Play: Steven Pasquale, Junk
Best Leading Actress in a Play: Amy Schumer, Meteor Shower
Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Ari’el Stachel , The Band’s Visit
Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Hayley Kilgore, Once On This Island*
Best Featured Actor in a Play: Rick Holmes, Junk
Best Featured Actress in a Play: Blair Brown, The Parisian Woman
Best Score: David Yazbek, The Band’s Visit
Best Book: Itamar Moses, The Band’s Visit
Best Director of a Musical: Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants
Best Director of a Play: Rebecca Taichman, Time and the Conways
Best Choreography: Chris Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants
Best Orchestrations: AnnMarie Milazzo and Michael Starobin, Once On This Island
* for categories we think they would be submitted for.